The Horse Race keeps voters running in circles

Ben Lindner

benjamincharleslindner@gmail.com

 

I'm really into following coverage of the Oscars. All year, I'm reading article about what movie is most likely to win Best Picture. Recently, I've noticed that there are rarely new movies being added to the list, instead the ones that were considered "appealing to the Academy" become major awards players. The predictions create a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy where predicting that something might be true makes it true.

The same thing happens all the time in politics. Too often, writers focus too much on the "horse race" rather than on the actual substance of the election.

"The Horse Race" is a phrase used to describe how well candidates are doing in the race relative to one another. This kind of coverage emphasizes winning above all other aspects of elections. This kind of coverage is extremely common and is bad for journalism. When journalists focus too much on "the horse race," it can create all sorts of problems for voters when they go to cast their votes. 

There are many examples of this. In 2016, every measurement available pointed to Hillary Clinton winning in a landslide and it was a shock when Donald Trump pulled out the election. The polls told a completely different story than reality.

During the Democratic primary for the 2020 primary, the narrative was set that Joe Biden was the most "electable." Just like a movie being "appealing to the Academy," this narrative is built on the assumption that it will be true later. Voters felt like Joe Biden was the most electable candidate and so he became the most electable candidate, even though few people could actually say what being electable means. On the other hand, voters determined Bernie Sanders was not electable, despite his polling being just as strong as Biden's.

Picture source: Lageneralista.com

This shows a major problem with our voting system. By focusing on who is winning, policy is often swept aside. It also adds fuel to the distrust of journalists and politicians. A false reality is created because of the voter's preconceived ideas about the election.

To combat this, new outlets must take active measures against this kind of coverage. They should eliminate or at the very least greatly reduce their coverage of polling. This coverage often reframes the election in a harmful way. They should also substantively and frequently reiterate the candidates' policies and do so without editorializing them. This way, the voters can stay informed and make their own decisions.

By taking election coverage focus off of the horse race, voters will be able to have a much easier time understanding what is going on with the election.